A commentary on the Iraqi Dinar Phenomenon. NOT A NEWS SOURCE but reality, silliness, inconsistencies, questions and cares shared with fellow Dinarmaniacs...
New costumes law to affect Iraqi economy positively, says MP
(excerpt from news story, paragraph 2)
In a statement to the National Iraqi News Agency NINA “The new law will reduce inflammation of goods in the Iraqi markets and encourages the Iraqi Private Sector to increase agricultural and industrial production to support national production. The law will also help to reduce and prevent entrance of bad or illegal goods into Iraq,” he added.
I'm really excited to see what costumes they're gonna wear to positively affect the economy. Hopefully Obama and company are watching as well. And any law that reduces inflammation is really good in my book. (and this was NOT a translation by Google).
We know the best information coming from Iraq comes in Arabic. If we really want to know what's going on, get the firsthand scoop, we should watch Iraq TV and follow the local news services in the native language. Those of us who don't speak Arabic but still snarf around to find every tidbit of real news we can find are stuck with Google translations and the results can be hilarious.
For example:
Let's hope Google can spell RV
I am SO glad Iraq will be in front of the Monetary Enormous
“The economist said Sirwan Kirkuki to Kurdistan News Agency (Rn), said that "the continuation of the opening of international banks in Iraq will work cash by 26% what it is now and will put Iraq in front of the evolution of monetary enormous, especially if the benefit of private banks and government of the mechanism of action of the branches of international banks in the country."
Is it customary to have sexual relations along with electricity projects?
بدء قسم العقود العامة في محافظة الديوانية بالمباشرة بتنفيذ عشرة مشاريع للكهرباء والاتصالات في المحافظة، بكلفة أربعة مليارات دينار ضمن ميزانية تنمية الأقاليم للعام الماضي Start section of public contracts in the province of Diwaniyah sexual relations to the implementation of ten projects for electricity and communications in the province, at a cost of four billion dinars in the budget of the development of regions of the past year
Petrlionat Dinars? Follow the math if you can
Discussed the budget year 2011 in the House of Representatives and many of the official forums and professional, and make observations before we view the budget totals Petrlionat dinars. Total expenditure on 93 of those units, income, disability scheme 79 14. Budget has allocated 29 of the investment, 1 for projects listed for the first time. Acquired operational spending to 64, and includes the amount of compensation to Kuwait, and could have been excluded from both sides of the revenues and expenditures as long as deducted automatically "from the account of the receipt of oil resources. And also include operational expenses amounts to produce and export oil and therefore does not exceed 58 At the exclusion of what is not them, and the total spending due to "So about 87.
Word order, words and phrases with multiple meanings, locally understood things that cannot be parsed unless you were born there - one guy keeps coming out as "Watermelon." Poor Google Translator just doesn't get it. But that's okay, we only need to understand one word: RV.
If there's no real news happening and you want to get your battery charged about the IQD, go to any of the dinar blogs and click on "Rumors." Here you can find whatever info that makes you feel good. You want a rate? It's there from $.35 to $9.00. You want a date? It's there, from "it's already happened" to "maybe in June."
With Prince Poppycock - or is it Okie?
Too often, the post starts with, "I know this to be true. My cousin's friend who works in a bank says his mother talked to a teller of a different bank about the IQD. The teller said the IQD was a rumor, but the mom saw for her own eyes a DeLaRue Model 4150 laser-verification currency counting machine sitting on the counter behind her. That means we're gettin' rich tomorrow, right?"
One of the most infamous rumor sources is Okie the Oil Man. Okie first appeared about October, 2010 with such authority, people believed him right away. He tells us he has 40 years in the oil business with highly placed sources in-country and in the US government. He's rough and tough, can't spell his way out of a sentence, and is dead sure of his intel. Says he's ordered a new private jet, he's so sure it's gonna happen. Here's a recent post from Okie:
[OKIE] i’m not going to be on here long enough to answer questions–have new intel just recently received–there are a confidentiality agreement that i have made–suffice to say that those of of today that was dis-appointed will not be dis-appointed very much longer–is is done and expect this week may be a wonderful week for all of us–lets see what develpopes–sure looking good right now
[OKIE] wish i could tell all-but have to honor my word–if your word is no good –neither are you (myself i’m referring too
[OKIE] gankans–will happen sooner than expected–as per source 5 minutes ago
Sounds encouraging, yes? Okie has been wrong so often (as in every time), people read his posts for comic relief. Responses to his posts include "Yawn," "Gee, glad I'm glad I quit my job last week," "One of these days if we live long enough, Okie's gonna be right," and "Pure Poppycock." He's been dropped from sites, reviled on others. I hope he's a real guy, sounds like he'd be a blast to have a beer with at the Driller's Bar. And I hope he gets his jet. But really, either he's completely snowed by his sources or his brain is a little brittle from 40 years of sniffing petroleum fumes. Okie, no offense, man, but you're gonna have to be patient with the rest of us.
So, if you need a jolt while you're waiting, go read some rumors. New ones every day. But think of it as reading the comics or watching TheBachelor - entertainment without any hint of reality (but maybe a speck of hope).
Boy, that didn't take long. Got an answer rightly - far too soon to panic. When the RV is announced, the only immediate payout is to the 5%. Governments may or may not begin to cash in - for dollars or oil - after 6 months. The rest of the RV payout doesn't get made to 85% of dinars in circulation cuz Iraq holds them. That means even with $trillions in payout, current reserves and oil will pay for it. Short term, billions in construction/infrastructure work will keep dinar in country and provide further funds to carry over. In this scenario, we are good to go. Any opinions on this?
Okay, the big carrot – pay 1/10 of one cent for an investment that returns in excess of $3.00.I still can’t believe it’s true. But I bought a bunch. Then I started to work with some numbers
Pssst, Buddy, Want Some Dinar?
Assume there are 2,000,000 dinar holders worldwide.Not such a wild assumption because Ali at DinarTrade has over 600,000 by himself.
Now assume the average holding is 1,000,000 dinar.
That’s TWO TRILLION dinars in circulation.And that number supposedly represents only 5% of all the world’s dinars.Apparently Iraq holds 85%, governments and large investors hold the remaining 10%.
Let’s assume the RV/RI comes out at $1.00.We don’t know where it will come out and we hope it’s more, but for sake of argument, let’s use a buck.That’s TWO TRILLION AMERICAN DOLLARS.
If you look at the entire supply of dinars, an RV at $1.00 would be worth FORTY TRILLION AMERICAN DOLLARS.If the dinar comes out at $3.00, we’re looking at $120 TRILLION.That’s a lot of cabbage.
Our friends say the RV can be done because it’s backed by oil and gas reserves.A report in early January 2011 said the total reserves could exceed 500 billion barrels.At $90.00 per barrel, that makes the oil reserves worth 45 TRILLION AMERICAN DOLLARS.Add in gas reserves and you have maybe $100TRILLION, all of this taken in over at least the next two decades.That means $120T out short term and $100T in long term.
People have explained the plausibility of the RV because “Before Saddam, the dinar was trading for over $3.00.”This is comforting and historically true but I’m wondering if there were nearly as many dinars in circulation.
We’ve see lot of explanations of how this whole thing is coming down, but it seems impossible to me.In the end, I guess I don’t care - I just want my coupla million greenbacks in the bank.How about you?
A democracy in Iraq is nothing less than a miracle. Take an area roughly the size of California, half of which is desert wilderness. In that area there are at least two independent nations, a score of languages, a half dozen conflicting religions and 25 million people who have been taught to remember every slight, every slur, every bit of discourtesy or dishonor that has been done to the family, tribe, caliphate, sect or race since before there was a Great Spice Road five thousand years ago. You are surrounded by neighbors, often hostile, with many of their own problems, who delight in meddling in your internal affairs. Of course all these Hatfields, McCoys, Sheepmen, Cowmen, Indians and Cavalry, Islamists, Arabs and others are sitting on a whole sea of oil, enough to send billions of barrels of it throughout the world for generations and never run dry. Natural gas, same story.
Imagine The Lord of the Flies with unlimited wealth.
Now layer on the rest of the world – the UN, the IMF, the WTO, the US with all the sanctions and executive orders and policies and pressures. Now bring in the big money business interests from all over Asia, Europe, Russia and don’t forget the neighbors.
UN Drops Sanctions - Nothing Breaks
And yet…the miracle is happening. It has taken eight years and over 4,000 American lives. It may be fragile. It may be fraught with intrigue… a switch of minister here, a Kurdish objection there, budget read or unread? Government formed, not formed? Oops, here comes the Emir of Kuwait meeting with Maliki behind closed doors – sworn enemies having a cordial sit-down. But taken altogether, we are witnessing an inclusionary, representative government that is taking care of business. And the world is welcoming them. The UN in its dropping of sanctions, the nosy neighbors coming to visit, joining the Arab League, the Gulf Cooperative Council, the WTO are just the few pressure points we know about.
Those of us interested only in the revaluation of the currency are focused on the when and how much. But we are learning that we must be patient. We believed the currency would RV in November – Thanksgiving Dinar; then it was end of December – Christmas Dinar. Will it happen by Valentine’s Day? Easter Dinar? Mother’s Day? Some people have been waiting for more than five years.
Maybe it will happen soon and maybe later. The bigger story, though, is this democracy Iraq has wrought. IF they can pull it off, THAT will pay dividends for generations to come.
