Jumped Out of My Skin

This morning at 7 a.m. my phone buzzed telling me I had TWO text messages.  I never get texts at that hour.  And today is the day the Emir of Kuwait is supposed to show up in Iraq with PAPERS.  Iraq is nine hours ahead.  Dang, that Emir could have come and gone.  And I’ve got my phone listed with FIVE organizations to ALERT me when the RV is announced.  My eyes shot open.  My heart started pounding.  I grabbed the phone and found out it was only Sandy sending me a reminder before she went to work.  S**T!  Near heart attack for nothing.

Shabibi, Text Me, Man!

It got me thinking, however, what really WILL happen when the RV is announced? There are more than a million of us dinarmaniacs in the US alone, many with involved spouses and families – let’s say three million hopeful souls.  That means at least five million instant texts sent from various dinar sources, double that if they double up, maybe 15 million near heart attacks.  But that’s just the beginning.  50 million tearful prayers of thanks pour into Heaven.  Now the emails start to fly – everywhere.  Phone calls hit DinarTrade like a tsunami bigger than the one that slammed Japan.  Servers moan across the land and some give up.

Phones at banks all over America start ringing and don’t stop.  If you are one of those with a personal relationship with some bank president, you’ll be calling good old Joe RIGHT NOW.  Another three million calls to DinarTrade.  Their 5,000 phone lines are choked so you call again and again.  A million more calls to our Dinar Daddy.  Airlines are swamped with reservations to Belize. A caravan bigger than the Million Man March heads for Toledo.   People who were normal, good-hearted folk have now turned into crazed dinarmaniacs, anxious to cash in their 10,000% capital gain.  It’s a feeding frenzy, piranhas all tearing at the same pig.  For awhile

Two weeks later, the market for pleasure boats skyrockets.  Land prices rise.  The banks are flush with money as mortgages are paid off.  They’re making a fortune in spreads and wire transfer fees.  All kinds of unsold real estate goes under contract.  The stock market rockets up.   Businesses that have held off releasing new products or expansion pull the trigger while new businesses are launched.  Employment jumps.  O takes the credit and, now that we can afford it, invades Libya, making it the 51^st state.

One month after RV, we realize the US economy is saved.  Same for Europe.  China starts selling US debt to Kuwait.   Gasoline prices drop to $1.50 / gallon because the U.S. is trading dinars for oil, as agreed and, of course, we own Libya.  

Wait, didn’t my phone just buzz a few minutes ago?  I must have fallen back asleep.  What a delicious dream.   

Maliki Fighting His DNA in Developing Democracy

The gains in Iraq are all that much more impressive when one understands that the Arab culture is one of personal power and control.  As much as Maliki & Co. say they are attempting to create a working democracy, he and they fighting at least 6,000 years of tribal culture where it is common to keep the masses numb, dumb and poor.

Since the Arab culture is that way, is it not surprising that Islam would contain the same ingredients?  Unlike Christianity, Islam was not founded on principles of loving one another and caring for the widows and orphans.  Islam is based on survival of the family, the tribe, the sect, the Caliphate, the Sultanate, the Emirate, the Kingdom to the extent that any threat to the entity will be dealt with by death.  This is why we see peon migrant labor in Arab countries – a population excluded from citizens who may share in the country’s wealth.  They are not family.  It is why we see radical laws against foreigners.  They are not family. 

Nouri al-Maliki, fighting his DNA

Even if you are part of the Islamic entity, unless you are in a position of control, you are still a peon.  I watched in Cairo while the local Caliph sat in a tea shop like a Godfather in Sicily was visited by his people seeking favors, bowing, scraping, kissing the ring.  For, you see, Islam gives that Caliph or that Emir complete control over your family relations, your job, your position in society and your faith life.  He (and it is always He) has complete power over you and the ones you love.  If he grants you a divorce, a job, a prayer, you owe him.  He can collect the favor at any time.  He will not forget.

Let’s overlay this culture on Iraq.  Maliki currently has ultimate power.  He got the position because he took it and gave others power.  Why hasn’t he hurried to pass out benefits to 4 million poor people?  IMO, his embedded DNA says they should stay that way.  They are easier to control that way.  There is more in it for him if they stay that way.  Why is it so easy for him to delay social benefits?  Because he has several hundred Members of Parliament with the same DNA.  Why won’t he expedite the decision to RI or RV the currency and enrich the entire nation?  Because, in the Muslim/Arab mind, that would allow the common man, the peon, the women, to become educated and economically self-sufficient – which eliminates the need to depend on the parent theocracy – and erodes the Caliph’s power… his ability to be the chosen voice of Allah.  He says he wants to – but his gut says no – but maybe he could have more power if he did – but his ancestors and his Prophet never did – but maybe – but no – but, but, but…

The world is pushing Maliki to make his country’s currency viable on the world stage.  And some day, when the pressure becomes too great, he will do it.  But you can see it in his face… he’s struggling.   It’s against his nature to do so.  Because, Allah forbid, another tribe might benefit as well.

Discouragement Over RV Setting In

“What the (bleep) are you waiting for?”

“How hard can it be?

“Git ‘er Done!”

“These idiots are gonna blow the whole deal!”

Some Day The Cash Will Come...

Have you read these comments on the blogs?  Do you get the idea people are getting discouraged with the IQD investment?  Frankly, between the hype of the dinar sellers, the frequent “sure things” by the dinar rumorists and all the authoritative statements on the conference calls over the last year, people have become eerily quiet, like, they’ve given up.   Perhaps it’s finally settled in that we have no control and virtually zero accurate information about what is really going on – and we are beginning to feel pretty stupid about falling for the IQD story. 

There are some pretty smart, knowledgeable “git ‘er done” people in the IQD investment community.  You can tell from the posts.  The advice from most of them is, “it’s got to happen, all we have to do is wait.”  But for people who will lose their homes this month if it doesn’t happen, people who are champing at the bit to fund charitable projects, people who need funds to retire, and the guy who really wants to buy a big boat for his kids this summer, waiting is painful.

The real danger of delay is that Iraq will fall back into civil unrest, undoing most of the work, money and blood spent in creating a democracy.  It’s a very real possibility.  The final ministers aren’t ratified yet and the Parliament is talking about taking a TWO MONTH break from April to June.  Now is the time for Maliki to put the finishing touches on his government.  He is the man.  Let’s see if he’s got the guts.   Meanwhile,

“Maliki, we are waiting for you!!”

“…great, they are going backwards in democracy.”

Also meanwhile more food for disappointment… or is it???, “Mohammid my buddy for over 25 years working for B.S.I. inc. out of Baghdad said he just got the word to change computer chips in all B.S.I. vending machines throughout Baghdad and outlying cities no later than 17 MAR. He told me his Superior told him to hold his IQD also because it would soon be worth 2.77 US.”

Iraq Protesters “Days of Irritation”

"Oh, give me a home where the oil trucks roam"

You may have read about how much pressure “the people” were putting on their government on Friday February 25 with their “days of rage” protest.  Approximately 10,000 bored, hungry people showed up in eight cities carrying signs.  Out of more than 25 million citizens, 10,000 showed up.  Security forces shot a few because they were trying to burn down buildings and then they went home.  Yesterday, a few hundred came back to protest.  This doesn’t sound like much rage to me, more like “irritation.”

There’s no doubt people are pissed that the government is taking so long to provide services, but the gripe in Iraq is nothing like the gripes in Egypt, Tunisia or Libya where MILLIONS are truly enraged and thousands are dying for their cause. 

So, what’s going on here?  Are the Iraqis protesting just to be one of the gang?  Is this some kind of Maliki Theater to put pressure on the various factions, sects, caliphates, tribes and castes?  Or is it Allawi Theater to make life uncomfortable for the Maliki machine?   Or is it just some bored hungry people with sign boards.

One thing is clear.  The Iraqis have a lot less to gripe about than many of their neighbors.  And in the end, if Maliki ever gives the nation a tradeable currency, the protests will be few and far between. 

Disappointment in Maliki Runs Deep

Surely the RV would happen by the end of 2010, the blogs said.  Surely it would happen in January, they hoped when it didn’t.  And now that Maliki has let the Feb. 15 deadline pass without RV, disappointment has hit a new high.  Here are avatars of active people on the dinar investment fora and some of their thoughts:

“I’ve had it with those rag-hat, sand-pounding, camel-eating illegitimate sons of Abraham.  No two of them speak the same truth.  A contract means nothing.”

“The pressure is so great – from the Arab world, the IMF, the Joe Biden Band, banks, businesses with contracts, governments, investors and the 28 million Iraqi people who are starving – something’s gotta happen and if the GOI doesn’t act soon – with tangible results, everything done to date will fall apart in anger.

“Everybody’s wrong while the dinar pumpers get rich.”

“The thing that gets me is all these so-called sources on the conference calls.  They are so confident, they sound so connected.  Thousands of us thirst for their words.  The hosts bow and scrape in gratitude for the nuggets being shared but, in fact, they are as much in the dark as every other person who’s not Maliki.  It’s all smoke.”

“If we are disappointed, think how the Iraqi people must feel.  Many are starving.  Most are unemployed.  The natural Arab drive for commerce is being squelched because the currency is worthless.  Frustration, frustration, frustration.  The country remains isolated from the world because its currency is not tradeable.  And the babies die.  And the fields remain uncultivated.  And the oil waits underground.  And the ships in the harbor rust at their moorings, unloaded.”

And so we wait.

Let’s Rate the Dinar Blogs

Once you jump into the swirling eddy of information that surrounds the IQD, it’s easy to get swallowed, kind of like being in a toilet while it is flushing.  I find new sources of info everyday… heck, I added this blog less than a month ago.  They all have their personalities.  And now, after swirling in the ever-quickening stream for over a year, I offer my opinion of each one based on its value as an information source.  Just my opinion, offered for your enlightenment and entertainment.  Would appreciate your opinion as well.

DinarVets - Rating ****

Adam Montana, the "guy who wrote the book on the dinar" operates this site on two levels.  In its public persona, it offers all the commentary, rumors and user-generated info any site can offer.  Very civil.  In its private, or VIP persona, it offers virtually no news at all.  News arrives by the site owner's email when it is absolutely true and a done deal.  The emphasis for VIP is what to do "after RV..."  how to cash out economically including offshore banking advice - and promises of business investment opportunities after RV.  You will never find "rate and date" info here but VIPs can expect text messages and emails once the RV happens - along with resources for taxes, estate planning, specially negotiated exchange rates with banks, etc.  Following DinarVets makes you believe the RV is real.

Dinar Daddy's Tidbits - Rating ****

The forum on this site is pure news with backup links.  There is no chitchat.  There is no sense of insidership.  The purpose of the site is to attract attention so they can sell more dinar.  Now that we understand that, and whether we buy dinar or not there, we still appreciate the up-to-date news - with better translations than found anywhere else.

KTF Missions - Rating ***

As arguably the most-visited dinar site in the world, KTFM offers voluminous user content led by Frank Villa, known as Frank26.  The site is heavily overlain with Christian sentiment including much prayer and a very caring on-line community.  Heck, they even have their own cook book.  It is here that the RV was first called "the blessing" which, when it occurs, certainly is apt. As for its news content, I would characterize the info on KTFM conference calls and written notes as well-reasoned, passionate, collaborative conjecture.  And maybe that's the best that can come out of a very unformed, secretive Iraq.  Frank26 is diligent as he sticks to his 1-2-3 predictions, cautions against reading too much into the information presented, and counsels people to be ever-patient.  People appreciate the effort he puts out with his mods and admins.

CurrencyChatter - Rating **

These guys, commonly known as the GET team, are way behind in the Iraq news cycle.  The site tries to do a lot of things, only one of which is Iraqi dinar info.  News is typically days old.  But rumors are fresh and common.  This is the home of Okie the Oilman and various other imaginative prognosticators so if you want a boost where you can hear someone say "It's happening TODAY," this is the place.  

Dinartrade - Rating *

This is not a news site but the sales site where Ali sells dinars.  Nevertheless, there is a button for "Latest news" and it is interesting to see what this Iraqi-based organization, chooses as news.  Most is economic, building a case for Iraq as a pending super-economy.  You'll never find a hint of rate or date here which is consistent with what Ali says in interviews.  Worth visiting once every other week... until the RV happens at which time, Ali will send you a text message on your phone with the best news of all. 

A Clash of Sources - Budget or No Budget

One of the great frustrations about following events in Iraq and especially those factors that affect the Iraqi Dinar is that the sources of information are voluminous and we can't really tell who knows what they're talking about.  There are innumerable bloggers - the best of which provide links to their sources.  There are also many news sources - which tend to contradict themselves.  And then of course there is the translation factor - we speakers of American English are just not able to easily glean the meaning of Googletranslated English from Arabic.

Whenever it happens, the banks are ready

Here is an example that happened today:
Source Number One says: "Iraqi Government Passes Budget."  We have been waiting for this for a long time; I'm about to jump out of my chair for joy.  Then Source Number Two says: "Budget NOT approved but Article 140 is passed."  Good thing I didn't jump out of my chair.  Then Source Number Three says: "An Amendment to Budget Has Passed (but not the whole thing)."  Okay, that's a step but still feeling deflated.  Then at 9:31 a.m. Source Number Four says (without a link), "Budget Reading Postponed to 2/13."  Now it's sounding like the original news is really bogus.  But then Source Number Five at 9:39 a.m. says (with link): "Budget Passed." Now I'm feeling good again.  Then the last source says:  "Budget to be voted on tomorrow."  Now, that's more like it.  Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow creeps time in its own petty pace, especially in Baghdad.   But I can live with that. 

In fact, I'll just live with whatever happens, but my question is, where there is a situation as cut-and-dried as having a bill pass or not pass, why aren't the sources consistent?  IT'S DRIVING ME NUTS.  How about you?  Anybody else following this stuff?  Lemme know.  Meanwhile, fingers crossed at least until tomorrow.