Jumped Out of My Skin

This morning at 7 a.m. my phone buzzed telling me I had TWO text messages.  I never get texts at that hour.  And today is the day the Emir of Kuwait is supposed to show up in Iraq with PAPERS.  Iraq is nine hours ahead.  Dang, that Emir could have come and gone.  And I’ve got my phone listed with FIVE organizations to ALERT me when the RV is announced.  My eyes shot open.  My heart started pounding.  I grabbed the phone and found out it was only Sandy sending me a reminder before she went to work.  S**T!  Near heart attack for nothing.

Shabibi, Text Me, Man!

It got me thinking, however, what really WILL happen when the RV is announced? There are more than a million of us dinarmaniacs in the US alone, many with involved spouses and families – let’s say three million hopeful souls.  That means at least five million instant texts sent from various dinar sources, double that if they double up, maybe 15 million near heart attacks.  But that’s just the beginning.  50 million tearful prayers of thanks pour into Heaven.  Now the emails start to fly – everywhere.  Phone calls hit DinarTrade like a tsunami bigger than the one that slammed Japan.  Servers moan across the land and some give up.

Phones at banks all over America start ringing and don’t stop.  If you are one of those with a personal relationship with some bank president, you’ll be calling good old Joe RIGHT NOW.  Another three million calls to DinarTrade.  Their 5,000 phone lines are choked so you call again and again.  A million more calls to our Dinar Daddy.  Airlines are swamped with reservations to Belize. A caravan bigger than the Million Man March heads for Toledo.   People who were normal, good-hearted folk have now turned into crazed dinarmaniacs, anxious to cash in their 10,000% capital gain.  It’s a feeding frenzy, piranhas all tearing at the same pig.  For awhile

Two weeks later, the market for pleasure boats skyrockets.  Land prices rise.  The banks are flush with money as mortgages are paid off.  They’re making a fortune in spreads and wire transfer fees.  All kinds of unsold real estate goes under contract.  The stock market rockets up.   Businesses that have held off releasing new products or expansion pull the trigger while new businesses are launched.  Employment jumps.  O takes the credit and, now that we can afford it, invades Libya, making it the 51^st state.

One month after RV, we realize the US economy is saved.  Same for Europe.  China starts selling US debt to Kuwait.   Gasoline prices drop to $1.50 / gallon because the U.S. is trading dinars for oil, as agreed and, of course, we own Libya.  

Wait, didn’t my phone just buzz a few minutes ago?  I must have fallen back asleep.  What a delicious dream.   

Maliki Fighting His DNA in Developing Democracy

The gains in Iraq are all that much more impressive when one understands that the Arab culture is one of personal power and control.  As much as Maliki & Co. say they are attempting to create a working democracy, he and they fighting at least 6,000 years of tribal culture where it is common to keep the masses numb, dumb and poor.

Since the Arab culture is that way, is it not surprising that Islam would contain the same ingredients?  Unlike Christianity, Islam was not founded on principles of loving one another and caring for the widows and orphans.  Islam is based on survival of the family, the tribe, the sect, the Caliphate, the Sultanate, the Emirate, the Kingdom to the extent that any threat to the entity will be dealt with by death.  This is why we see peon migrant labor in Arab countries – a population excluded from citizens who may share in the country’s wealth.  They are not family.  It is why we see radical laws against foreigners.  They are not family. 

Nouri al-Maliki, fighting his DNA

Even if you are part of the Islamic entity, unless you are in a position of control, you are still a peon.  I watched in Cairo while the local Caliph sat in a tea shop like a Godfather in Sicily was visited by his people seeking favors, bowing, scraping, kissing the ring.  For, you see, Islam gives that Caliph or that Emir complete control over your family relations, your job, your position in society and your faith life.  He (and it is always He) has complete power over you and the ones you love.  If he grants you a divorce, a job, a prayer, you owe him.  He can collect the favor at any time.  He will not forget.

Let’s overlay this culture on Iraq.  Maliki currently has ultimate power.  He got the position because he took it and gave others power.  Why hasn’t he hurried to pass out benefits to 4 million poor people?  IMO, his embedded DNA says they should stay that way.  They are easier to control that way.  There is more in it for him if they stay that way.  Why is it so easy for him to delay social benefits?  Because he has several hundred Members of Parliament with the same DNA.  Why won’t he expedite the decision to RI or RV the currency and enrich the entire nation?  Because, in the Muslim/Arab mind, that would allow the common man, the peon, the women, to become educated and economically self-sufficient – which eliminates the need to depend on the parent theocracy – and erodes the Caliph’s power… his ability to be the chosen voice of Allah.  He says he wants to – but his gut says no – but maybe he could have more power if he did – but his ancestors and his Prophet never did – but maybe – but no – but, but, but…

The world is pushing Maliki to make his country’s currency viable on the world stage.  And some day, when the pressure becomes too great, he will do it.  But you can see it in his face… he’s struggling.   It’s against his nature to do so.  Because, Allah forbid, another tribe might benefit as well.

Discouragement Over RV Setting In

“What the (bleep) are you waiting for?”

“How hard can it be?

“Git ‘er Done!”

“These idiots are gonna blow the whole deal!”

Some Day The Cash Will Come...

Have you read these comments on the blogs?  Do you get the idea people are getting discouraged with the IQD investment?  Frankly, between the hype of the dinar sellers, the frequent “sure things” by the dinar rumorists and all the authoritative statements on the conference calls over the last year, people have become eerily quiet, like, they’ve given up.   Perhaps it’s finally settled in that we have no control and virtually zero accurate information about what is really going on – and we are beginning to feel pretty stupid about falling for the IQD story. 

There are some pretty smart, knowledgeable “git ‘er done” people in the IQD investment community.  You can tell from the posts.  The advice from most of them is, “it’s got to happen, all we have to do is wait.”  But for people who will lose their homes this month if it doesn’t happen, people who are champing at the bit to fund charitable projects, people who need funds to retire, and the guy who really wants to buy a big boat for his kids this summer, waiting is painful.

The real danger of delay is that Iraq will fall back into civil unrest, undoing most of the work, money and blood spent in creating a democracy.  It’s a very real possibility.  The final ministers aren’t ratified yet and the Parliament is talking about taking a TWO MONTH break from April to June.  Now is the time for Maliki to put the finishing touches on his government.  He is the man.  Let’s see if he’s got the guts.   Meanwhile,

“Maliki, we are waiting for you!!”

“…great, they are going backwards in democracy.”

Also meanwhile more food for disappointment… or is it???, “Mohammid my buddy for over 25 years working for B.S.I. inc. out of Baghdad said he just got the word to change computer chips in all B.S.I. vending machines throughout Baghdad and outlying cities no later than 17 MAR. He told me his Superior told him to hold his IQD also because it would soon be worth 2.77 US.”

Iraq Protesters “Days of Irritation”

"Oh, give me a home where the oil trucks roam"

You may have read about how much pressure “the people” were putting on their government on Friday February 25 with their “days of rage” protest.  Approximately 10,000 bored, hungry people showed up in eight cities carrying signs.  Out of more than 25 million citizens, 10,000 showed up.  Security forces shot a few because they were trying to burn down buildings and then they went home.  Yesterday, a few hundred came back to protest.  This doesn’t sound like much rage to me, more like “irritation.”

There’s no doubt people are pissed that the government is taking so long to provide services, but the gripe in Iraq is nothing like the gripes in Egypt, Tunisia or Libya where MILLIONS are truly enraged and thousands are dying for their cause. 

So, what’s going on here?  Are the Iraqis protesting just to be one of the gang?  Is this some kind of Maliki Theater to put pressure on the various factions, sects, caliphates, tribes and castes?  Or is it Allawi Theater to make life uncomfortable for the Maliki machine?   Or is it just some bored hungry people with sign boards.

One thing is clear.  The Iraqis have a lot less to gripe about than many of their neighbors.  And in the end, if Maliki ever gives the nation a tradeable currency, the protests will be few and far between. 

Disappointment in Maliki Runs Deep

Surely the RV would happen by the end of 2010, the blogs said.  Surely it would happen in January, they hoped when it didn’t.  And now that Maliki has let the Feb. 15 deadline pass without RV, disappointment has hit a new high.  Here are avatars of active people on the dinar investment fora and some of their thoughts:

“I’ve had it with those rag-hat, sand-pounding, camel-eating illegitimate sons of Abraham.  No two of them speak the same truth.  A contract means nothing.”

“The pressure is so great – from the Arab world, the IMF, the Joe Biden Band, banks, businesses with contracts, governments, investors and the 28 million Iraqi people who are starving – something’s gotta happen and if the GOI doesn’t act soon – with tangible results, everything done to date will fall apart in anger.

“Everybody’s wrong while the dinar pumpers get rich.”

“The thing that gets me is all these so-called sources on the conference calls.  They are so confident, they sound so connected.  Thousands of us thirst for their words.  The hosts bow and scrape in gratitude for the nuggets being shared but, in fact, they are as much in the dark as every other person who’s not Maliki.  It’s all smoke.”

“If we are disappointed, think how the Iraqi people must feel.  Many are starving.  Most are unemployed.  The natural Arab drive for commerce is being squelched because the currency is worthless.  Frustration, frustration, frustration.  The country remains isolated from the world because its currency is not tradeable.  And the babies die.  And the fields remain uncultivated.  And the oil waits underground.  And the ships in the harbor rust at their moorings, unloaded.”

And so we wait.

A Clash of Sources - Budget or No Budget

One of the great frustrations about following events in Iraq and especially those factors that affect the Iraqi Dinar is that the sources of information are voluminous and we can't really tell who knows what they're talking about.  There are innumerable bloggers - the best of which provide links to their sources.  There are also many news sources - which tend to contradict themselves.  And then of course there is the translation factor - we speakers of American English are just not able to easily glean the meaning of Googletranslated English from Arabic.

Whenever it happens, the banks are ready

Here is an example that happened today:
Source Number One says: "Iraqi Government Passes Budget."  We have been waiting for this for a long time; I'm about to jump out of my chair for joy.  Then Source Number Two says: "Budget NOT approved but Article 140 is passed."  Good thing I didn't jump out of my chair.  Then Source Number Three says: "An Amendment to Budget Has Passed (but not the whole thing)."  Okay, that's a step but still feeling deflated.  Then at 9:31 a.m. Source Number Four says (without a link), "Budget Reading Postponed to 2/13."  Now it's sounding like the original news is really bogus.  But then Source Number Five at 9:39 a.m. says (with link): "Budget Passed." Now I'm feeling good again.  Then the last source says:  "Budget to be voted on tomorrow."  Now, that's more like it.  Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow creeps time in its own petty pace, especially in Baghdad.   But I can live with that. 

In fact, I'll just live with whatever happens, but my question is, where there is a situation as cut-and-dried as having a bill pass or not pass, why aren't the sources consistent?  IT'S DRIVING ME NUTS.  How about you?  Anybody else following this stuff?  Lemme know.  Meanwhile, fingers crossed at least until tomorrow.

Don't You Love The Okie Rumors?

If there's no real news happening and you want to get your battery charged about the IQD, go to any of the dinar blogs and click on "Rumors."  Here you can find whatever info that makes you feel good.  You want a rate?  It's there from $.35 to $9.00.  You want a date?  It's there, from "it's already happened" to "maybe in June."

With Prince Poppycock - or is it Okie?

Too often, the post starts with, "I know this to be true.  My cousin's friend who works in a bank says his mother talked to a teller of a different bank about the IQD.  The teller said the IQD was a rumor, but the mom saw for her own eyes a DeLaRue Model 4150 laser-verification currency counting machine sitting on the counter behind her.  That means we're gettin' rich tomorrow, right?"

One of the most infamous rumor sources is Okie the Oil Man.  Okie first appeared about October, 2010 with such authority, people believed him right away.  He tells us he has 40 years in the oil business with highly placed sources in-country and in the US government.  He's rough and tough, can't spell his way out of a sentence, and is dead sure of his intel.  Says he's ordered a new private jet, he's so sure it's gonna happen.  Here's a recent post from Okie:

[OKIE] i’m not going to be on here long enough to answer questions–have new intel just recently received–there are a confidentiality agreement that i have made–suffice to say that those of of today that was dis-appointed will not be dis-appointed very much longer–is is done and expect this week may be a wonderful week for all of us–lets see what develpopes–sure looking good right now
[OKIE] wish i could tell all-but have to honor my word–if your word is no good –neither are you (myself i’m referring too
[OKIE] gankans–will happen sooner than expected–as per source 5 minutes ago

Sounds encouraging, yes?  Okie has been wrong so often (as in every time), people read his posts for comic relief.  Responses to his posts include "Yawn," "Gee, glad I'm glad I quit my job last week,"  "One of these days if we live long enough, Okie's gonna be right," and "Pure Poppycock."   He's been dropped from sites, reviled on others.  I hope he's a real guy, sounds like he'd be a blast to have a beer with at the Driller's Bar.  And I hope he gets his jet.  But really, either he's completely snowed by his sources or his brain is a little brittle from 40 years of sniffing petroleum fumes.  Okie, no offense, man, but you're gonna have to be patient with the rest of us.   

So, if you need a jolt while you're waiting, go read some rumors.  New ones every day.  But think of it as reading the comics or watching The Bachelor - entertainment without any hint of reality (but maybe a speck of hope).

It Seems Impossible, Part II

Okay, the big carrot – pay 1/10 of one cent for an investment that returns in excess of $3.00.  I still can’t believe it’s true.  But I bought a bunch.  Then I started to work with some numbers

Pssst, Buddy, Want Some Dinar?

Assume there are 2,000,000 dinar holders worldwide.  Not such a wild assumption because Ali at DinarTrade has over 600,000 by himself.

Now assume the average holding is 1,000,000 dinar.

That’s TWO TRILLION dinars in circulation.  And that number supposedly represents only 5% of all the world’s dinars.  Apparently Iraq holds 85%, governments and large investors hold the remaining 10%. 

Let’s assume the RV/RI comes out at $1.00.  We don’t know where it will come out and we hope it’s more, but for sake of argument, let’s use a buck.   That’s TWO TRILLION AMERICAN DOLLARS.

If you look at the entire supply of dinars, an RV at $1.00 would be worth FORTY TRILLION AMERICAN DOLLARS.  If the dinar comes out at $3.00, we’re looking at $120 TRILLION.  That’s a lot of cabbage.

Our friends say the RV can be done because it’s backed by oil and gas reserves.  A report in early January 2011 said the total reserves could exceed 500 billion barrels.  At $90.00 per barrel, that makes the oil reserves worth 45 TRILLION AMERICAN DOLLARS.  Add in gas reserves and you have maybe $100TRILLION, all of this taken in over at least the next two decades.  That means $120T out short term and $100T in long term.

  

People have explained the plausibility of the RV because “Before Saddam, the dinar was trading for over $3.00.”  This is comforting and historically true but I’m wondering if there were nearly as many dinars in circulation.

We’ve see lot of explanations of how this whole thing is coming down, but it seems impossible to me.  In the end, I guess I don’t care - I just want my coupla million greenbacks in the bank.  How about you? 

Why the Heck is it Taking So Long?

Hatfields & McCoys Without Weapons

A democracy in Iraq is nothing less than a miracle.  Take an area roughly the size of California, half of which is desert wilderness.  In that area there are at least two independent nations, a score of languages, a half dozen conflicting religions and 25 million people who have been taught to remember every slight, every slur, every bit of discourtesy or dishonor that has been done to the family, tribe, caliphate, sect or race since before there was a Great Spice Road five thousand years ago.  You are surrounded by neighbors, often hostile, with many of their own problems, who delight in meddling in your internal affairs.  Of course all these Hatfields, McCoys, Sheepmen, Cowmen, Indians and Cavalry, Islamists, Arabs and others are sitting on a whole sea of oil, enough to send billions of barrels of it throughout the world for generations and never run dry.  Natural gas, same story.

Imagine The Lord of the Flies with unlimited wealth.

Now layer on the rest of the world – the UN, the IMF, the WTO, the US with all the sanctions and executive orders and policies and pressures.  Now bring in the big money business interests from all over Asia, Europe, Russia and don’t forget the neighbors. 

UN Drops Sanctions - Nothing Breaks

And yet…the miracle is happening.  It has taken eight years and over 4,000 American lives.  It may be fragile.  It may be fraught with intrigue… a switch of minister here, a Kurdish objection there, budget read or unread?  Government formed, not formed?  Oops, here comes the Emir of Kuwait meeting with Maliki behind closed doors – sworn enemies having a cordial sit-down.  But taken altogether, we are witnessing an inclusionary, representative government that is taking care of business.  And the world is welcoming them.  The UN in its dropping of sanctions, the nosy neighbors coming to visit, joining the Arab League, the Gulf Cooperative Council, the WTO are just the few pressure points we know about.

Those of us interested only in the revaluation of the currency are focused on the when and how much.  But we are learning that we must be patient.  We believed the currency would RV in November – Thanksgiving Dinar; then it was end of December – Christmas Dinar.  Will it happen by Valentine’s Day?  Easter Dinar?  Mother’s Day?  Some people have been waiting for more than five years.

Maybe it will happen soon and maybe later.  The bigger story, though, is this democracy Iraq has wrought.  IF they can pull it off, THAT will pay dividends for generations to come.