Disappointment in Maliki Runs Deep

Surely the RV would happen by the end of 2010, the blogs said.  Surely it would happen in January, they hoped when it didn’t.  And now that Maliki has let the Feb. 15 deadline pass without RV, disappointment has hit a new high.  Here are avatars of active people on the dinar investment fora and some of their thoughts:

“I’ve had it with those rag-hat, sand-pounding, camel-eating illegitimate sons of Abraham.  No two of them speak the same truth.  A contract means nothing.”

“The pressure is so great – from the Arab world, the IMF, the Joe Biden Band, banks, businesses with contracts, governments, investors and the 28 million Iraqi people who are starving – something’s gotta happen and if the GOI doesn’t act soon – with tangible results, everything done to date will fall apart in anger.

“Everybody’s wrong while the dinar pumpers get rich.”

“The thing that gets me is all these so-called sources on the conference calls.  They are so confident, they sound so connected.  Thousands of us thirst for their words.  The hosts bow and scrape in gratitude for the nuggets being shared but, in fact, they are as much in the dark as every other person who’s not Maliki.  It’s all smoke.”

“If we are disappointed, think how the Iraqi people must feel.  Many are starving.  Most are unemployed.  The natural Arab drive for commerce is being squelched because the currency is worthless.  Frustration, frustration, frustration.  The country remains isolated from the world because its currency is not tradeable.  And the babies die.  And the fields remain uncultivated.  And the oil waits underground.  And the ships in the harbor rust at their moorings, unloaded.”

And so we wait.

Let’s Rate the Dinar Blogs

Once you jump into the swirling eddy of information that surrounds the IQD, it’s easy to get swallowed, kind of like being in a toilet while it is flushing.  I find new sources of info everyday… heck, I added this blog less than a month ago.  They all have their personalities.  And now, after swirling in the ever-quickening stream for over a year, I offer my opinion of each one based on its value as an information source.  Just my opinion, offered for your enlightenment and entertainment.  Would appreciate your opinion as well.

DinarVets - Rating ****

Adam Montana, the "guy who wrote the book on the dinar" operates this site on two levels.  In its public persona, it offers all the commentary, rumors and user-generated info any site can offer.  Very civil.  In its private, or VIP persona, it offers virtually no news at all.  News arrives by the site owner's email when it is absolutely true and a done deal.  The emphasis for VIP is what to do "after RV..."  how to cash out economically including offshore banking advice - and promises of business investment opportunities after RV.  You will never find "rate and date" info here but VIPs can expect text messages and emails once the RV happens - along with resources for taxes, estate planning, specially negotiated exchange rates with banks, etc.  Following DinarVets makes you believe the RV is real.

Dinar Daddy's Tidbits - Rating ****

The forum on this site is pure news with backup links.  There is no chitchat.  There is no sense of insidership.  The purpose of the site is to attract attention so they can sell more dinar.  Now that we understand that, and whether we buy dinar or not there, we still appreciate the up-to-date news - with better translations than found anywhere else.

KTF Missions - Rating ***

As arguably the most-visited dinar site in the world, KTFM offers voluminous user content led by Frank Villa, known as Frank26.  The site is heavily overlain with Christian sentiment including much prayer and a very caring on-line community.  Heck, they even have their own cook book.  It is here that the RV was first called "the blessing" which, when it occurs, certainly is apt. As for its news content, I would characterize the info on KTFM conference calls and written notes as well-reasoned, passionate, collaborative conjecture.  And maybe that's the best that can come out of a very unformed, secretive Iraq.  Frank26 is diligent as he sticks to his 1-2-3 predictions, cautions against reading too much into the information presented, and counsels people to be ever-patient.  People appreciate the effort he puts out with his mods and admins.

CurrencyChatter - Rating **

These guys, commonly known as the GET team, are way behind in the Iraq news cycle.  The site tries to do a lot of things, only one of which is Iraqi dinar info.  News is typically days old.  But rumors are fresh and common.  This is the home of Okie the Oilman and various other imaginative prognosticators so if you want a boost where you can hear someone say "It's happening TODAY," this is the place.  

Dinartrade - Rating *

This is not a news site but the sales site where Ali sells dinars.  Nevertheless, there is a button for "Latest news" and it is interesting to see what this Iraqi-based organization, chooses as news.  Most is economic, building a case for Iraq as a pending super-economy.  You'll never find a hint of rate or date here which is consistent with what Ali says in interviews.  Worth visiting once every other week... until the RV happens at which time, Ali will send you a text message on your phone with the best news of all. 

A Clash of Sources - Budget or No Budget

One of the great frustrations about following events in Iraq and especially those factors that affect the Iraqi Dinar is that the sources of information are voluminous and we can't really tell who knows what they're talking about.  There are innumerable bloggers - the best of which provide links to their sources.  There are also many news sources - which tend to contradict themselves.  And then of course there is the translation factor - we speakers of American English are just not able to easily glean the meaning of Googletranslated English from Arabic.

Whenever it happens, the banks are ready

Here is an example that happened today:
Source Number One says: "Iraqi Government Passes Budget."  We have been waiting for this for a long time; I'm about to jump out of my chair for joy.  Then Source Number Two says: "Budget NOT approved but Article 140 is passed."  Good thing I didn't jump out of my chair.  Then Source Number Three says: "An Amendment to Budget Has Passed (but not the whole thing)."  Okay, that's a step but still feeling deflated.  Then at 9:31 a.m. Source Number Four says (without a link), "Budget Reading Postponed to 2/13."  Now it's sounding like the original news is really bogus.  But then Source Number Five at 9:39 a.m. says (with link): "Budget Passed." Now I'm feeling good again.  Then the last source says:  "Budget to be voted on tomorrow."  Now, that's more like it.  Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow creeps time in its own petty pace, especially in Baghdad.   But I can live with that. 

In fact, I'll just live with whatever happens, but my question is, where there is a situation as cut-and-dried as having a bill pass or not pass, why aren't the sources consistent?  IT'S DRIVING ME NUTS.  How about you?  Anybody else following this stuff?  Lemme know.  Meanwhile, fingers crossed at least until tomorrow.

Okay, Here's Another One

I thought we were done with exploring funny translations, but this just came along today and I had to share:

January 27, 2011 04:12 pm · Posted in NEWS (Iraq & World Currency)

New costumes law to affect Iraqi economy positively, says MP

(excerpt from news story, paragraph 2)

In a statement to the National Iraqi News Agency NINA “The new law will reduce inflammation of goods in the Iraqi markets and encourages the Iraqi Private Sector to increase agricultural and industrial production to support national production.   The law will also help to reduce and prevent entrance of bad or illegal goods into Iraq,” he added.

I'm really excited to see what costumes they're gonna wear to positively affect the economy.  Hopefully Obama and company are watching as well.  And any law that reduces inflammation is really good in my book.  (and this was NOT a translation by Google).  

Lost in Translation

We know the best information coming from Iraq comes in Arabic.  If we really want to know what's going on, get the firsthand scoop, we should watch Iraq TV and follow the local news services in the native language.  Those of us who don't speak Arabic but still snarf around to find every tidbit of real news we can find are stuck with Google translations and the results can be hilarious.
For example:

Let's hope Google can spell RV

 I am SO glad Iraq will be in front of the Monetary Enormous

“The economist said Sirwan Kirkuki to Kurdistan News Agency (Rn), said that "the continuation of the opening of international banks in Iraq will work cash by 26% what it is now and will put Iraq in front of the evolution of monetary enormous, especially if the benefit of private banks and government of the mechanism of action of the branches of international banks in the country."

Is it customary to have sexual relations along with electricity projects?

بدء قسم العقود العامة في محافظة الديوانية بالمباشرة بتنفيذ عشرة مشاريع للكهرباء والاتصالات في المحافظة، بكلفة أربعة مليارات دينار ضمن ميزانية تنمية الأقاليم للعام الماضي Start section of public contracts in the province of Diwaniyah sexual relations to the implementation of ten projects for electricity and communications in the province, at a cost of four billion dinars in the budget of the development of regions of the past year

Petrlionat Dinars?  Follow the math if you can

Discussed the budget year 2011 in the House of Representatives and many of the official forums and professional, and make observations before we view the budget totals Petrlionat dinars. Total expenditure on 93 of those units, income, disability scheme 79 14. Budget has allocated 29 of the investment, 1 for projects listed for the first time. Acquired operational spending to 64, and includes the amount of compensation to Kuwait, and could have been excluded from both sides of the revenues and expenditures as long as deducted automatically "from the account of the receipt of oil resources. And also include operational expenses amounts to produce and export oil and therefore does not exceed 58 At the exclusion of what is not them, and the total spending due to "So about 87.  

Word order, words and phrases with multiple meanings, locally understood things that cannot be parsed unless you were born there - one guy keeps coming out as "Watermelon." Poor Google Translator just doesn't get it.  But that's okay, we only need to understand one word: RV. 

Don't You Love The Okie Rumors?

If there's no real news happening and you want to get your battery charged about the IQD, go to any of the dinar blogs and click on "Rumors."  Here you can find whatever info that makes you feel good.  You want a rate?  It's there from $.35 to $9.00.  You want a date?  It's there, from "it's already happened" to "maybe in June."

With Prince Poppycock - or is it Okie?

Too often, the post starts with, "I know this to be true.  My cousin's friend who works in a bank says his mother talked to a teller of a different bank about the IQD.  The teller said the IQD was a rumor, but the mom saw for her own eyes a DeLaRue Model 4150 laser-verification currency counting machine sitting on the counter behind her.  That means we're gettin' rich tomorrow, right?"

One of the most infamous rumor sources is Okie the Oil Man.  Okie first appeared about October, 2010 with such authority, people believed him right away.  He tells us he has 40 years in the oil business with highly placed sources in-country and in the US government.  He's rough and tough, can't spell his way out of a sentence, and is dead sure of his intel.  Says he's ordered a new private jet, he's so sure it's gonna happen.  Here's a recent post from Okie:

[OKIE] i’m not going to be on here long enough to answer questions–have new intel just recently received–there are a confidentiality agreement that i have made–suffice to say that those of of today that was dis-appointed will not be dis-appointed very much longer–is is done and expect this week may be a wonderful week for all of us–lets see what develpopes–sure looking good right now
[OKIE] wish i could tell all-but have to honor my word–if your word is no good –neither are you (myself i’m referring too
[OKIE] gankans–will happen sooner than expected–as per source 5 minutes ago

Sounds encouraging, yes?  Okie has been wrong so often (as in every time), people read his posts for comic relief.  Responses to his posts include "Yawn," "Gee, glad I'm glad I quit my job last week,"  "One of these days if we live long enough, Okie's gonna be right," and "Pure Poppycock."   He's been dropped from sites, reviled on others.  I hope he's a real guy, sounds like he'd be a blast to have a beer with at the Driller's Bar.  And I hope he gets his jet.  But really, either he's completely snowed by his sources or his brain is a little brittle from 40 years of sniffing petroleum fumes.  Okie, no offense, man, but you're gonna have to be patient with the rest of us.   

So, if you need a jolt while you're waiting, go read some rumors.  New ones every day.  But think of it as reading the comics or watching The Bachelor - entertainment without any hint of reality (but maybe a speck of hope).

Ah, Now I Understand

Boy, that didn't take long.  Got an answer rightly - far too soon to panic.  When the RV is announced, the only immediate payout is to the 5%.  Governments may or may not begin to cash in - for dollars or oil - after 6 months.  The rest of the RV payout doesn't get made to 85% of dinars in circulation cuz Iraq holds them. That means even with $trillions in payout, current reserves and oil will pay for it.  Short term, billions in construction/infrastructure work will keep dinar in country and provide further funds to carry over.  In this scenario, we are good to go.  Any opinions on this?